A week away from the election and investors everywhere are making bets on who will win. A bet on Biden is a bet on clean energy and cannabis. A bet on Trump is a bet on fossil fuels and big banks. The merits of these investment themes (even should the candidate win) are shaky… Read more »
This is a story about an unhappily married couple. One day the husband took ill and was rushed to the hospital. The physician informed his wife that although her husband’s condition was serious, he would be fine if they could put him on a ventilator for a couple of days, giving his body time to… Read more »
It is often said that markets look to the future, rather than the past, as they attempt to discover what the price of a security or a commodity should be. Most people find this to be an alien concept. They believe that markets should reflect information that we already know. For instance, let’s say… Read more »
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Google make up more than 20% of the S&P 500. These “one-decision” or “buy and hold” stocks that seemingly only go up — are responsible for most of this year’s markets gains. The S&P 500 is up 5.5% through the first three quarters of this year; excluding these five stocks,… Read more »
In our first blog post on the election, we showed that the market may be predicting a Trump loss based on the fact that stocks have been trading down since the end of the second presidential convention (historically a bad sign for the incumbent). In our second blog post, we showed that, while the… Read more »
We are now 34 days away from the election and the first debate is on the books. While we aren’t sure which way the election will go (Biden is ahead in the polls, but so was Clinton in 2016), the outcome will almost certainly move the markets. How do we prepare for this uncertainty?… Read more »
Over the past couple of decades we have witnessed fragmentation of the media. Today you can dial up your version of the truth on any number of media outlets. Narrowcasting cable and radio shows can create a negative emotional response that can drive your investment returns off a cliff, especially if most of your time… Read more »
There is no doubt that President Trump faces an uphill election battle. For starters, the President lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes in 2016, and carried the electoral college only with wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which he won by a combined margin smaller than the capacity of a college… Read more »
With national elections just weeks away, we are getting more inquiries from clients, as well as others, about who we think will win the presidential election, and what that may mean for the markets and the economy. A common misconception, promulgated by the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., is that the stock market… Read more »
