{"id":9187,"date":"2022-06-28T10:44:08","date_gmt":"2022-06-28T14:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ogorek.com\/?post_type=video_commentaries&p=9187"},"modified":"2022-06-28T10:44:08","modified_gmt":"2022-06-28T14:44:08","slug":"when-will-the-bear-market-give-you-your-money-back","status":"publish","type":"video_commentaries","link":"https:\/\/ogorek.com\/video-commentaries\/when-will-the-bear-market-give-you-your-money-back\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will The Bear Market Give You Your Money Back?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this edition of Chart Talk, Tony Ogorek and Jeff Viksjo discuss how long it may take for the economy to recover by looking back at previous recessions.<\/h4>\n

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TRANSCRIPT<\/u><\/h3>\n

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TONY:<\/em><\/h3>\n

Welcome to another edition of Chart Talk.\u00a0 I am Tony Ogorek. \u00a0I\u2019m here with Portfolio Manager Jeff Viksjo.\u00a0 And Jeff, we\u2019ve got a couple of great charts today that are going to, hopefully, answer the questions for our clients and prospective clients\u2026 how long before I can get my money back from this bear market? So, let\u2019s take a look at the first chart, which looks at how much the S&P 500 has fallen during recessions that go back to, probably, World War II.\u00a0 What do we see here Jeff?\u00a0 Which recession do you think looks the closest to what we\u2019re probably gonna be going through here?<\/em><\/h3>\n

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JEFF:<\/em><\/h3>\n

Yeah, I think before we can get the money back, the market\u2019s gotta stop falling.\u00a0 So, this chart tries to get at how much further do we have to go. You know Tony, we\u2019re down about 25% so far this year, that\u2019s down more than about half of the recessions on this page.\u00a0 So that suggests we are getting close.\u00a0 <\/em><\/h3>\n

You asked which recession is the closest to today, I would argue it\u2019s probably 1981. Which is where we had a similar rise in inflation that was considered uncontrollable. Fed chairman Volker, at the time, raised rates very aggressively, much more so than we\u2019re seeing today, to double digits to bring inflation down, which he was ultimately successful.\u00a0 In that recession, the market was down about 30%. \u00a0So again, we\u2019re almost to that number.<\/em><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/h3>\n

TONY:<\/em><\/h3>\n

Great. So, let\u2019s flip to our next chart.\u00a0 And this takes a look at all the recessions, again, since World War II, looks at the average decline.\u00a0 And you\u2019re right Jeff, it\u2019s down about a third.\u00a0 Typically, markets are up two-thirds of the time, they\u2019re down one-third of the time.\u00a0 That is the reality of things.\u00a0 But the real interesting thing is, what\u2019s the breakeven from being down 20%, which is where we are right now.\u00a0 Very interesting, right?<\/em><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/h3>\n

JEFF:<\/em><\/h3>\n

It is interesting.\u00a0 If you look at COVID, it was only 6-months before we hit down 20 to all the way to breakeven.\u00a0 That was extremely fast. \u00a0We don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be anywhere near that close because the Fed doesn\u2019t have those same tools available to it today that it used in COVID. However, the average shows you, it\u2019s very close to 2-years.\u00a0 So, if we hit down 20 in June, it would suggest we have 2-years until June 2024.<\/em><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/h3>\n

TONY:<\/em><\/h3>\n

Right.\u00a0 So, the good news is, we\u2019re not looking at 5-years or 10-years, it\u2019s probably on average a couple years.\u00a0 It\u2019s not gonna be done this year, but at least we have some decent guidance in terms of what investors can expect to hopefully keep them in the game and help them to keep their profits that they\u2019ve earned over the past few years.<\/em><\/h3>\n

So, thank you again for joining us for this edition of Chart Talk.<\/em><\/h3>\n

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